Preliminary Climate Change Assessment
for the Puget Sound Partnership
Prepared by
The University of Washington Climate Impacts Group
In collaboration with
Puget Sound Partnership
June 2017
ACKNOWLEDGEMENTS
The authors would like to express their sincere thanks to the following people who participated in
workshops, calls or the project kick off meeting or who reviewed early drafts of this report.
PROJECT PARTICIPANTS, LISTED IN ALPHABETICAL ORDER
Angela Adams, US Environmental Protection Agency
Trina Bayard, Audubon Washington
David Beauchamp, University of Washington & US Geological
Survey
Scott Berbells, Washing State Department of Health
Peter Best, Puget Sound Partnership
Marnie Boardman, Washington State Department of Health
Jennifer Carlson, Washington State Department of Ecology
Bart Christiaen, Washington State Department of Natural
Michael Cox, US Environmental Protection Agency
Derek Day, Washington State Department of Ecology
Richard Dinicola, US Geological Survey
Cindy Dittbrenner, Snohomish Conservation District
Jamie Donatuto, Swinomish Indian Tribal Community
Margaret Dutch, Washington State Department of Ecology
John Eliasson, Washington State Department of Health
Jessica Engel, King County
Robert Ewing, Puget Sound Partnership Science Panel
Nicole Faghin, Washington Sea Grant
Kirsten Feifel, Washington State Department of Natural
Julie Fox, Washington State Department of Health
Tessa Francis, Puget Sound Institute
Gus Gates, Surfrider Foundation
Eliza Ghitis, Northwest Indian Fisheries Commission
Libby Gier, Washington State Department of Natural Resources
Jennifer Griffiths, Washington State Department of Fish and
Wildlife
Eric Grossman, US Geological Survey
Nathalie Hamel, Puget Sound Partnership
Brad Hanson, National Oceanographic and Atmospheric
Administration
Lynn Helbrecht, Washington State Department of Fish and
Wildlife
Kollin Higgins, King County
Stephanie Jaeger, King County
Teri King, Washington Sea Grant
Tom Koontz, University of Washington Tacoma
Christopher Krembs, Washington State Department of Ecology
Jay Krienitz, Washington State Department of Fish and Wildlife
Wayne Landis, Puget Sound Partnership Science Panel
Dayv Lowry, Washington State Department of Fish and Wildlife
Kate Macneale, King County
David McBride, Washington State Department of Health
Ian Miller, Washington Sea Grant
Amber Moore, Puget Sound Partnership
Jan Newton, Puget Sound Partnership Science Panel
Doug Peters, Washington State Department of Commerce
Kenneth Pierce, Washington State Department of Fish and
Wildlife
Melissa Poe, Washington Sea Grant
Julianne Ruffner, Washington State Department of Ecology
Michael Rylko, US Environmental Protection Agency
Emily Sanford, Washington State Department of Health
Michael Schmeltz, Puget Sound Clean Air Agency
Hiedi Siegelbaum, Washington Stormwater Center &
Washington State University
Si Simenstad, University of Washington
Jon Snyder, Washington State Office of the Governor
Julann Spromberg, National Oceanic and Atmospheric
Administration
Eric Strecker, Puget Sound Partnership Science Panel
Phil Swartzendruber, Puget Sound Clean Air Agency
Shirlee Tan, King County
Ron Thom, Pacific Northwest National Laboratory
Brian Walsh, Washing State Department of Health
Trina Wellman, Puget Sound Partnership Science Panel
PUGET SOUND PARTNERSHIP PROJECT LEADS
Scott Redman, Program Director, Science and Evaluation
Jen Pouliotte, Environmental Planner
UNIVERSITY OF WASHINGTON CLIMATE IMPACTS GROUP LEAD AUTHORS
Dan Siemann
Lara Whitely Binder
FUNDING
Support for this project was provided by the Puget Sound Partnership’s appropriation from the
Washington State Aquatic Lands Enhancement Account.
Recommended citation: Siemann, D. and L. Whitely Binder. 2017. Preliminary Climate Change
Assessment for Puget Sound Partnership. A Collaboration of Puget Sound Partnership and the University
of Washington Climate Impacts Group. Seattle, WA.
Cover image courtesy of Puget Sound Partnership
FOREWORD
Puget Sound is a complex ecosystem encompassing alpine areas, forests, wetlands, marine waters,
shorelines, rivers, farmlands and cities. It supports a large part of Washington State’s economy and
provides vital recreational, cultural and other quality of life benefits. Multiple pressures, from land
development, water pollution and climate change, all demand attention in order to achieve Washington
State’s goals for Puget Sound ecosystem recovery.
Climate change has, and will continue to have, important impacts on the region’s resources,
communities and ecosystems. Ocean acidification, warming temperatures, reduced snowpack, lower
summer stream flows, and changing magnitude and frequency of extreme events will influence
ecosystem recovery efforts, resource and other management activities on the land, and human health
and well-being.
The Puget Sound Partnership (the Partnership) is the state agency lead on the region’s collective effort
to restore and protect Puget Sound. The Partnership is committed to undertaking a climate change
assessment and resiliency strategy as outlined in the 2016 Action Agenda for Puget Sound. Building off
the report State of Knowledge: Climate Change in Puget Sound1, the Partnership has begun efforts to
understand the implications of climate change and ocean acidification on the Partnership’s goals for
recovery and long-term protection.
Adapting to climate change means taking action to prepare for, manage or reduce the adverse
consequences of a changing climate and take advantage of opportunities to achieve desired future
conditions. Understanding climate risks will improve the region’s ability to plan for long-term change
and extreme events, and adaptively manage as new science and information becomes available. The
Partnership is part of the National Estuary Program, an EPA place-based program to protect and restore
the water quality and ecological integrity of estuaries of national significance. This preliminary climate
assessment is one of the initial steps to meeting the National Estuary Program requirements for risk-
based assessment of climate change impacts and is meant to help inform future adaptation planning.
The Partnership intends that this preliminary assessment will inform and support future action in the
collective efforts to recover and protect Puget Sound, including:
Refine and improve how climate change is considered and reflected in future iterations of the
Action Agenda and associated Near Term Actions.
Consider climate change risks in new or updated Implementation Strategies to ensure that these
plans for accelerating progress to ecosystem recovery targets are resilient to climate change and
mitigate climate risk, where possible.
1 Mauger et al. 2015.
Improve how climate change is considered and reflected in the Ecosystem Recovery Plans
developed by Local Integrating Organizations, and in local salmon recovery chapter updates by
Lead Entities.
Advance climate-related science needs as outlined in the Puget Sound Science Work Plan.
For more information about these planning documents and approaches, please visit the Partnership’s
web pages at: www.psp.wa.gov.
Puget Sound ecosystem recovery efforts are ambitious in terms of their scope and complexity; climate
change is one of many components that will need to be addressed. The Partnership will continue to
pursue a diversity of entry points and partnerships required for a robust approach to planning and
implementation as part of an overall strategy for climate adaptation in Puget Sound recovery.
Contact Information
For information or questions about the development and use of this document, please contact Scott
Redman ([email protected]), Science and Evaluation Director, or Jen Pouliotte
([email protected]), Environmental Planner, at the Puget Sound Partnership.
TABLE OF CONTENTS
INTRODUCTION ……………………………………………………………………………………………………………………. 7
1.1
Project Overview …………………………………………………………………………………………………………… 7
1.2
Assessment Approach ……………………………………………………………………………………………………. 7
1.3
About this Report ………………………………………………………………………………………………………… 11
BRIEF CLIMATE SUMMARY…………………………………………………………………………………………………… 13
CLIMATE RISKS TO VITAL SIGNS ……………………………………………………………………………………………. 16
3.1
Water Quantity Goal ……………………………………………………………………………………………………. 16
3.1.1
Summer Stream Flows Vital Sign ……………………………………………………………………………. 16
3.2
Water Quality Goal ……………………………………………………………………………………………………… 17
3.2.1
Freshwater Quality Vital Sign …………………………………………………………………………………. 17
3.2.2
Marine Water Quality Vital Sign …………………………………………………………………………….. 18
3.2.3
Marine Sediment Quality Vital Sign ………………………………………………………………………… 20
3.2.4
Toxics in Fish Vital Sign………………………………………………………………………………………….. 21
3.3
Protect and Restore Habitat Goal ………………………………………………………………………………….. 22
3.3.1
Floodplains Vital Sign ……………………………………………………………………………………………. 22
3.3.2
Estuaries Vital Sign ……………………………………………………………………………………………….. 23
3.3.3
Eelgrass Vital Sign…………………………………………………………………………………………………. 25
3.3.4
Land Development and Cover Vital Sign ………………………………………………………………….. 26
3.3.5
Shoreline Armoring Vital Sign ………………………………………………………………………………… 27
3.4
Species and Food Webs Goal ………………………………………………………………………………………… 28
3.4.1
Pacific Herring Vital Sign ……………………………………………………………………………………….. 28
3.4.2
Chinook Salmon Vital Sign …………………………………………………………………………………….. 29
3.4.3
Birds Vital Sign……………………………………………………………………………………………………… 30
3.4.4
Orcas Vital Sign ……………………………………………………………………………………………………. 31
3.5
Healthy Human Population Goal …………………………………………………………………………………… 32
3.5.1
Air Quality Vital Sign……………………………………………………………………………………………… 32
3.5.2
Drinking Water Vital Sign ………………………………………………………………………………………. 33
3.5.3
Locally Harvestable Foods Vital Sign ……………………………………………………………………….. 34
3.5.4
Onsite Sewage Systems Vital Sign …………………………………………………………………………… 35
3.5.5
Outdoor Activity Vital Sign …………………………………………………………………………………….. 36
3.5.6
Shellfish Beds Vital Sign ………………………………………………………………………………………… 37
3.6
Human Quality Of Life Goal ………………………………………………………………………………………….. 38
3.6.1
Cultural Wellbeing Vital Sign ………………………………………………………………………………….. 38
3.6.2
Economic Vitality Vital Sign ……………………………………………………………………………………. 39
3.6.3
Good Governance Vital Sign ………………………………………………………………………………….. 40
3.6.4
Sense of Place Vital Sign ………………………………………………………………………………………… 41
3.6.5
Sound Stewardship Vital Sign…………………………………………………………………………………. 42
SUMMARY AND CONCLUSIONS ……………………………………………………………………………………………. 44
NEXT STEPS ……………………………………………………………………………………………………………………….. 47
5.1
Promote Climate-Adaptive Strategies and Actions ………………………………………………………….. 47
5.2
Support Research to Fill Information Gaps ……………………………………………………………………… 48
5.3
Continue to Assess Climate-Related Risks ………………………………………………………………………. 48
5.4
Incorporate Climate Change Considerations in Vital Signs, Indicators and Targets ………………. 48
REFERENCES ……………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………… 49
APPENDIX 1: Climate Assessment Questions ………………………………………………………………………………… 50
1 INTRODUCTION
1.1 PROJECT OVERVIEW
The Puget Sound Partnership is the state agency leading the region’s collective effort to restore and
protect Puget Sound. The State Legislature charged the Partnership with achieving six overarching goals
by 2020 related to water quantity and quality, species and habitats, and human health and quality of
life. However, previous studies by the Partnership and others2 indicate that climate change and ocean
acidification threaten our ability to achieve these goals. To begin assessing the implications of climate
change on Puget Sound recovery and long-term protection, the Partnership contracted with University
of Washington’s Climate Impacts Group to help the Partnership identify key climate concerns and
provide a platform for moving toward a more resilient Puget Sound.
The purpose of this study is to develop and implement a preliminary assessment of the implications of
changing climate and ocean conditions to Puget Sound Partnership’s goals for…